Why Embrace Uncertainty

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Boobombu thinks:

  1. I must create a comprehensive plan on how to attack the market.
  2. I must paint my target customer's profile using different demographic segments.
  3. I must illustrate the product's financial returns every quarter for the next five years.
  4. I must understand my target's buying decisions from see-to-buy.

Shimumu thinks:

  1. Someone out there needs my help. I just need to know who.
  2. And, how I can help them.
  3. And, how much they would pay me for it.
  4. I will embrace uncertainty.

Who would be more sane, psyched, and ready to rock a million times more after a year?

Shimumu would! Yay! Shimumu understands:

  1. Plans rarely come to fruition because they're based on pure speculation.
  2. Situation ABC will happen -- disrupting your plans, and you won't anticipate it.
  3. You must adapt yourself to the demands of a changing world, anyway.

When you embrace uncertainty, you ready yourself to adapt to what the world gives you. Winner = You. Yay!

Johnny Boy's Story

  1. Johnny Boy has an in-depth plan to sell his social networking product to some big behemoth in 2 years.
  2. He spends his life-savings, his mama's savings, his bank's loans, his mortgage, and his livelihood building XYZ product.
  3. The dude starts screaming: "Hey! I will build the next Facebook! I will be on the cover of Forbes for my genius product!"

Johnny thinks:

  • "Hey, everything will be the same in two years."
  • "Nothing will change."
  • "The market will still need this product."

What Johnny doesn't anticipate:

  • Jimmy's product manager moves to Oak-town in Month 4.
  • Demand for social networking dwindles dramatically in Month 8.
  • Users start becoming weary of a saturated social networking industry in a year.
  • Some genius college dropout inventor makes his product useless in 18 months.

Sha-bam! What now, Johnny? Where's your master plan now, mister? It's back to the drawing board for you.

You Can't Plan for a Moving World

The less you embrace uncertainty, the more you'll meet the unanticipated -- crippling your plans one-by-one. When you plan an idea, you plan it for right now -- not for when the plan's successfully implemented. Another way of saying it:

  1. You spend two years building Product XYZ.
  2. You've implemented an idea that was two years old. Ka-BAM!
  3. Instead of building something for January 2008, you built something for January 2006.

Taking 99805895807 hours/days/months/years to plan XYZ = horrendously unproductive. So:

Embrace Uncertainty

Let the market dictate how you spend your resources. Get something out there soon, while your plans are still fresh -- and not years old. Then, test your ideas. See what works. See what doesn't work. Revise, implement, seek feedback, re-implement, and repeat. Embrace uncertainty.

Waltz with the market.


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Posted on December 12

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