How to Make Good Decisions

<ol> <li>You travel to Las Vegas in a busted Pinto.</li> <li>You get there safely. </li> </ol> <h3>Did you make a good decision?</h3> NO WAY BILLY B! Yes, you got to your destination; but, your odds of getting to Vegas: tremendously against you. For instance, out of ten tries, you'd probably: <ul> <li>Get there safely 2 times.</li> <li>Fail 8 times.</li> </ul> Multiply bad decisions over time, and what happens? <ol> <li>Yes, you'll generate a few successes.</li> <li>But, you'll net a horrifically number of horrible results -- rendering your successes moot.</li> </ol> Entrepreneurs/companies/peeps can mistake a few successes for good decisions; in reality, those flawed decisions will ultimately catch up to them. Instead, make good decisions that will statistically pull you ahead in the long-run. <h2>Why Immediate Results Don't Matter</h2> You're playing a game of Blackjack. <ol> <li>You have a 20.</li> <li>The dealer shows 19.</li> <li>Do you raise? </li> </ol> Let's say you you stay put with your 20. <ol> <li>The dealer hits. </li> <li>He gets a 2. </li> </ol> Uh-oh. He just rocked your money, where you go home crying to mama. Did you really make a good decision? Of course, you did. You'd win 90% of the time if you were in the same situation. <h3>Now, let's say you had 19.</h3> The dealer had the same 19. <ol> <li>He hits.</li> <li>He gets a 2. </li> </ol> Did the dealer make a good decision? NO WAY CHARLIE CEEBEE! The dealer would lose almost every single time if he had committed that same move. Immediate results don't matter; what decisions you make over time do. <h2>Don't Mistake Good Results for Good Decisions</h2> If some self-proclaimed business guru tells you to do X because he succeeded doing X -- that might just mean he used a severely busted-up Pinto to get his destination. <ul> <li>That is, dude got lucky using a horrifically horrible decision -- that statistically, would've destroyed his journey.</li> </ul> Just because you know/heard some super-successful Schmo who works tirelessly until 3 a.m, it doesn't mean he's making a good decision. (Hint: He's succeeding despite the faulty decision.) You can make ridiculously bad decisions, and still win -- but relying on those bad decisions over time will destroy you in the long-run, or at least seriously stunt your growth. <h2>Good decisions every tick. Win.</h2> 2008-04-27T21:03:00-07:00 true 637 how-to-make-good-decisions

2009-11-06T21:45:47-08:00