How to Make Business Bets

Boxing.

  1. Mike Tyson.
  2. Buster Douglas.

1990.

  • Tyson = heralded as the greatest ever.
  • Buster Douglas barely squeezed into the title fight.

The odds:

  • Tyson 40:1 favorite.

Only one casino in Vegas offered bets for the fight.

What'd folks do?

  • "Tyson won't lose this one."
  • "This is a sure thing!"
  • "Let's mortgage our house on this fight!"

That Saturday night, Douglas downs Tyson.

Result?

  • Folks lose their homes.
  • Folks lose their businesses.
  • Folks set themselves financially back for decades.

Even if you think your business idea is a "sure thing", and you get the idea to pour your life savings into it, one variable could destroy you.

Nothing is a sure thing.

People + Foreclosures

It's simple to blame Wall Street; but, doing that just teaches everyone to blame others when we lose.

What lessons can we take away from the mortgage crisis?

  1. Nothing is a sure thing.
  2. Don't spend what you don't have.
  3. Only make a risky bet when you can afford it.

When you're investing, tack this:

  • "If this one investment totally blows our face, will we stay in business?"

That keeps you from:

  1. overspending
  2. speculating
  3. making risky bets that can destroy you

Yes, you can't grow big without taking a big risk; but pouring everything into an unsure thing -- despite all the clear signs -- will ultimately destroy you.

The ideal model:

  1. Big risks = to grow.
  2. Conservative bets = to stay in business.

Do 'em both.

Big. Affordable. Bets.

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Posted on October 30

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